‘Finally, Good news: More Recoveries than Active Cases’

The number of 'recovered' cases surpassed the number of 'active' cases for the first time in India on Wednesday, since the Covid-19 outbreak.

July 31, 2020

The number of 'recovered' cases surpassed the number of 'active' cases for the first time in India on Wednesday, since the Covid-19 outbreak.

"As many as 5,991 patients have been cured of Covid-19 over the last 24 hours. This takes the total number of patients recovered to 1,35,205, while the total number of active cases is currently 1,33,632. For the first time, the total number of recovered patients has exceeded the active cases. The recovery rate now stands at 48.88%,” the health ministry said in a statement.

Analysis of the 1,42,950 'closed cases'shows that while 1,35,205 (94.5 per cent) recovered, 7,745 died. With 9,985 new cases and 274 deaths reported in the last 24 hours, the total number of cases is now 2,76,583. The total number of tests carried out so far is 50,61,332, of which 1,45,216 samples were tested in the last 24 hours

Analysis of the data after April 19 reveals that the number of recoveries lagged behind the number of cases per day until May 29, when the gap began to narrow with an upswing in the recovery graph and a downswing in active cases. However, the question remains whether or not will this trend continue?

Experts have argued that a comparison of cumulative data on active and recovered cases may not provide a correct picture of the course of the Pandemic. The number of daily deaths could be a more accurate indicator, they said.

"Whether that is a meaningful figure or it won't depend on the time frame you 're looking at. This does not mean that much if you look at the total statistics. However, if the death rate starts to fall, that is significant, "said Dr. K.Srinath Reddy, a member of the ICMR Covid Task Force and President of the Public Health Foundation of India.

"Internationally,countries such as Spain and Italy are opening up as the death rate shows agra dual decline. The recovery rate is significant at any stage of the epidemic if it is reported on closed cases rather than on all cases, many of which may still be on the road to recovery, "said Dr. Reddy.

Globally, the number of active cases(about 34,50,000) is almost 70,000 more than the recoveries, according to Johns Hopkins University data. Most of the countries with a high case load have more recovered cases than active cases. The United States is an exception, with active cases surpassing the number of recoveries by over 800,000.

India has the 29th highest recovery rate among the top 50 countries, according to Johns Hopkins University. The recoveryrate is 91% in Germany, 84% in Turkey, 83% in Israel, 78% in Iran, 71% in Italy, 62% in Spain and 49% in Russia.

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In terms of case fatality rate, India is 25th (2.8%). The fatality rate in Israel is 1.6%, Germany 4.7%, Iran 4.8%, US 5.6%, and Italy 14.4%.

Even as the difference between the number of cases recovered and the number of active cases narrows, the World Health Organization warned that now is not the time for "complacency." Recognizing that 75% of the cases come from the Americas and South Asia as Europe improves, it said, "Most people around the world are still susceptible to the virus.”.

While, central teams are responsible for providing technical assistance to state health departments and municipal health officials in Delhi , Mumbai, Ahmedabad, Chennai , Kolkata and Bengaluru. The teams will visit these cities within a week to assess the public safety programs underway for Covid-19.